Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Roy Nelson
86%
14%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
35
Age
Δ 3y
37
23-3
Career record
Δ 29 pp
22-15
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cormier: 74 sig / 3 TD ·
Nelson: 17 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Roy Nelson
41
Sig strikes landed
22
60
Sig strikes attempted
69
69
Total strikes landed
39
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
229s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—