Back to UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
🏆 Title fight Main Heavyweight

Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Junior Dos Santos
59% 41%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
15-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-9
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Velasquez: 123 sig / 2 TD · Dos Santos: 46 sig / 0 TD
Cain Velasquez
Junior Dos Santos
51
Sig strikes landed
58
101
Sig strikes attempted
104
88
Total strikes landed
74
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.0
6.5
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
226s
Control time
10s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Cain Velasquez

15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—