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Lucas Martins vs Ramiro Hernandez

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader ·Mineirinho Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Lucas Martins
Ramiro Hernandez
73% 27%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Martins: 10 sig / 0 TD · Hernandez: 4 sig / 0 TD
Lucas Martins
Ramiro Hernandez
38
Sig strikes landed
33
84
Sig strikes attempted
69
49
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
81s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Lucas Martins

"Mineiro"
20-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner

Ramiro Hernandez

"Junior"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27