Prelims1
Featherweight
Felipe Arantes vs Edimilson Souza
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader
·Mineirinho Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Felipe Arantes
Edimilson Souza
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arantes: 35 sig / 3 TD ·
Souza: 52 sig / 0 TD
Felipe Arantes
Edimilson Souza
35
Sig strikes landed
31
68
Sig strikes attempted
72
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
19-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
D
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
Edimilson Souza
"Kevin"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29