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Marcos Vinicius vs Ali Bagautinov

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader ·Mineirinho Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Marcos Vinicius
Ali Bagautinov
56% 44%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vinicius: 27 sig / 0 TD · Bagautinov: 38 sig / 3 TD
Marcos Vinicius
Ali Bagautinov
31
Sig strikes landed
28
62
Sig strikes attempted
54
46
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marcos Vinicius

"Vina"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
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W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
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Blue corner

Ali Bagautinov

"Puncher"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28