Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Tor Troeng
65%
35%
Why
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
22-9-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-7-1
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Natal: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Troeng: 9 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Tor Troeng
26
Sig strikes landed
26
59
Sig strikes attempted
57
45
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
132s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Tor Troeng
"The Hammer"
17-7-1
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—