Main
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Jussier Formiga
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader
·Mineirinho Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Jussier Formiga
71%
29%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
29-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-8
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Benavidez: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Formiga: 6 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Jussier Formiga
33
Sig strikes landed
26
103
Sig strikes attempted
81
55
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
118s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
W1
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—