Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yushin Okami
Jacare Souza
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
35-12
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-10
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Okami: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Souza: 28 sig / 0 TD
Yushin Okami
Jacare Souza
19
Sig strikes landed
20
51
Sig strikes attempted
49
40
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Yushin Okami
"Thunder"
35-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—