Main
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira vs Ryan Bader
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader
·Mineirinho Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Glover Teixeira
Ryan Bader
72%
28%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
34-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-5
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Teixeira: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Bader: 11 sig / 0 TD
Glover Teixeira
Ryan Bader
29
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
60
46
Total strikes landed
44
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Glover Teixeira
34-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—