Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Healy
Khabib Nurmagomedov
15%
85%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
34-23
Career record
Δ 40 pp
30-0
—
Current streak
W4
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Healy: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 54 sig / 5 TD
Pat Healy
Khabib Nurmagomedov
19
Sig strikes landed
36
61
Sig strikes attempted
78
35
Total strikes landed
82
-0.1
Takedowns landed
4.0
0.2
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
0s
Control time
419s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
34-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Blue corner
W4
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
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W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—