Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Ricci
Myles Jury
30%
70%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
12-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-4
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ricci: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Jury: 22 sig / 4 TD
Mike Ricci
Myles Jury
18
Sig strikes landed
34
56
Sig strikes attempted
79
27
Total strikes landed
60
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
14s
Control time
275s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Ricci
"The Martian"
12-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
Blue corner
W3
Myles Jury
"Fury"
18-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—