Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Matt Mitrione
57%
43%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
82"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
11-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Schaub: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Mitrione: 7 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Schaub
Matt Mitrione
24
Sig strikes landed
28
52
Sig strikes attempted
48
34
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
122s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
73%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
11-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—