🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs Eddie Wineland
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Eddie Wineland
92%
8%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
27
Age
Δ 3y
29
35-9
Career record
Δ 20 pp
25-16-1
W5
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Barao: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Wineland: 11 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Eddie Wineland
72
Sig strikes landed
56
176
Sig strikes attempted
155
84
Total strikes landed
68
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W2
Eddie Wineland
25-16-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—