Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Prazeres
Jesse Ronson
76%
24%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Prazeres: 19 sig / 7 TD ·
Ronson: 38 sig / 1 TD
Michel Prazeres
Jesse Ronson
29
Sig strikes landed
31
51
Sig strikes attempted
72
57
Total strikes landed
53
3.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
309s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
26-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
Jesse Ronson
"The Body Snatcher"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28