Prelims1
Welterweight
Chris Clements vs Stephen Thompson
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Clements
Stephen Thompson
41%
59%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
12-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Clements: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Thompson: 23 sig / 2 TD
Chris Clements
Stephen Thompson
50
Sig strikes landed
54
118
Sig strikes attempted
142
59
Total strikes landed
65
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Clements
"The Menace"
12-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—