Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ivan Menjivar
Wilson Reis
51%
49%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
31
Age
Δ 3y
29
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Menjivar: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Reis: 33 sig / 4 TD
Ivan Menjivar
Wilson Reis
31
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
68
47
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
108s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
25-13
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
Wilson Reis
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29