Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mitch Gagnon
Dustin Kimura
44%
56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
13-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gagnon: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Kimura: 15 sig / 0 TD
Mitch Gagnon
Dustin Kimura
22
Sig strikes landed
24
51
Sig strikes attempted
61
35
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mitch Gagnon
13-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Kimura
"The Diamond"
12-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—