🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson
92%
8%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
29-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
19-8
W8
Current streak
W6
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 134 sig / 1 TD ·
Gustafsson: 110 sig / 1 TD
Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson
75
Sig strikes landed
32
126
Sig strikes attempted
94
89
Total strikes landed
42
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
220s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
W6
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—