Main
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs Rafael Dos Anjos
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Rafael Dos Anjos
65%
35%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
37-17
Career record
Δ 3 pp
33-17
W1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 39 sig / 2 TD
Donald Cerrone
Rafael Dos Anjos
46
Sig strikes landed
31
96
Sig strikes attempted
81
54
Total strikes landed
44
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
27s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W4
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—