Back to UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
Main Welterweight

Kelvin Gastelum vs Brian Melancon

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 ·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Brian Melancon
80% 20%
Why
22
Age
Δ 10y
31
22-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
8-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gastelum: 14 sig / 1 TD · Melancon: 7 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Brian Melancon
24
Sig strikes landed
20
52
Sig strikes attempted
44
52
Total strikes landed
34
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
191s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Kelvin Gastelum

22-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
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Blue corner
W1

Brian Melancon

8-3
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
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