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Main Welterweight

Carlos Condit vs Martin Kampmann

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 ·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Martin Kampmann
74% 26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
32-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Condit: 100 sig / 0 TD · Kampmann: 35 sig / 6 TD
Carlos Condit
Martin Kampmann
51
Sig strikes landed
41
124
Sig strikes attempted
103
67
Total strikes landed
54
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
44s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Carlos Condit

"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
L1

Martin Kampmann

"The Hitman"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—