Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Diego Brandao
Daniel Pineda
59%
41%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
23-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
29-17
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brandao: 42 sig / 8 TD ·
Pineda: 61 sig / 0 TD
Diego Brandao
Daniel Pineda
25
Sig strikes landed
20
50
Sig strikes attempted
48
39
Total strikes landed
36
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Diego Brandao
"DB"
23-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
29-17
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—