Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Steven Siler
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
38
Age
Δ 11y
26
27-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
30-16
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Siler: 6 sig / 0 TD
Mike Brown
Steven Siler
35
Sig strikes landed
40
82
Sig strikes attempted
99
61
Total strikes landed
58
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
245s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mike Brown
27-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
W1
Steven Siler
"Super"
30-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—