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Cody Donovan vs Ovince Saint Preux

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen ·TD Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cody Donovan
Ovince Saint Preux
41% 59%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
28-18
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Donovan: 10 sig / 0 TD · Saint Preux: 6 sig / 0 TD
Cody Donovan
Ovince Saint Preux
23
Sig strikes landed
29
58
Sig strikes attempted
55
29
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Cody Donovan

"Donnybrook"
9-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
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Blue corner
W1

Ovince Saint Preux

28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
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