Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Michael McDonald
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 12y
23
26-14
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pickett: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
McDonald: 51 sig / 0 TD
Brad Pickett
Michael McDonald
31
Sig strikes landed
40
80
Sig strikes attempted
107
48
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
89s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
26-14
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
17-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—