Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Michael Johnson
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
28-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-21
L1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lauzon: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 116 sig / 2 TD
Joe Lauzon
Michael Johnson
28
Sig strikes landed
41
84
Sig strikes attempted
79
42
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
92s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
L2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—