Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Max Holloway
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
25
Age
Δ 3y
22
23-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
27-10
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McGregor: 53 sig / 4 TD ·
Holloway: 23 sig / 0 TD
Conor McGregor
Max Holloway
46
Sig strikes landed
32
105
Sig strikes attempted
98
45
Total strikes landed
36
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
22s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—