Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Mike Pyle
54%
46%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
27-19
Career record
Δ 6 pp
28-14-1
W5
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Pyle: 0 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Mike Pyle
28
Sig strikes landed
22
59
Sig strikes attempted
62
40
Total strikes landed
31
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W4
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—