Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Travis Browne
88%
12%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
47-20
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-7-1
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Browne: 14 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Travis Browne
24
Sig strikes landed
25
45
Sig strikes attempted
49
40
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
116s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W1
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—