Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Chael Sonnen
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 5y
36
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
29-16-1
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rua: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Sonnen: 5 sig / 2 TD
Mauricio Rua
Chael Sonnen
39
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
73
62
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L2
Chael Sonnen
29-16-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—