Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Al Iaquinta
52%
48%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
11-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Couture: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Iaquinta: 80 sig / 4 TD
Ryan Couture
Al Iaquinta
34
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
67
57
Total strikes landed
49
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
217s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Couture
11-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
L1
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
14-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—