Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Soa Palelei
Nikita Krylov
28%
72%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
36
Age
Δ 15y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Palelei: 29 sig / 4 TD ·
Krylov: 45 sig / 0 TD
Soa Palelei
Nikita Krylov
37
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
69
62
Total strikes landed
43
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
151s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Soa Palelei
"The Hulk"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22