Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jamie Varner
Gleison Tibau
39%
61%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
22-11-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
34-14
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Varner: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Tibau: 26 sig / 2 TD
Jamie Varner
Gleison Tibau
39
Sig strikes landed
32
98
Sig strikes attempted
94
52
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jamie Varner
22-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W1
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—