Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Louis Gaudinot
Tim Elliott
43%
57%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
9-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gaudinot: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Elliott: 116 sig / 6 TD
Louis Gaudinot
Tim Elliott
38
Sig strikes landed
56
100
Sig strikes attempted
122
55
Total strikes landed
90
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Louis Gaudinot
"Goodnight"
9-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—