Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Dustin Poirier
34%
66%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
16-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
30-11
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Koch: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Poirier: 54 sig / 2 TD
Erik Koch
Dustin Poirier
30
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
70
43
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—