Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Brandon Vera
91%
9%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
39-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rothwell: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Vera: 41 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Brandon Vera
26
Sig strikes landed
22
50
Sig strikes attempted
33
51
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
223s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ben Rothwell
39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L1
Brandon Vera
"The Truth"
15-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—