Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Clay Guida
54%
46%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
19-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
39-22
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mendes: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Guida: 17 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Clay Guida
26
Sig strikes landed
17
58
Sig strikes attempted
60
44
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—