Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Neil Magny
25%
75%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
15-6-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
32-15
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Moraes: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Magny: 7 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Neil Magny
26
Sig strikes landed
46
63
Sig strikes attempted
90
43
Total strikes landed
76
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—