Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Amanda Nunes
Sheila Gaff
84%
16%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
24
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nunes: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Gaff: 3 sig / 0 TD
Amanda Nunes
Sheila Gaff
37
Sig strikes landed
20
66
Sig strikes attempted
44
81
Total strikes landed
35
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
226s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Amanda Nunes
"The Lioness"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L1
Sheila Gaff
"The German Tank"
9-8
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
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