Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ian McCall
Iliarde Santos
45%
55%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
13-6-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
30-14-1
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McCall: 92 sig / 1 TD ·
Santos: 43 sig / 1 TD
Ian McCall
Iliarde Santos
36
Sig strikes landed
35
88
Sig strikes attempted
85
57
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ian McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
13-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 3
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Iliarde Santos
30-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—