Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vinny Magalhaes
Anthony Perosh
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
29
Age
Δ 12y
41
14-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magalhaes: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Perosh: 8 sig / 0 TD
Vinny Magalhaes
Anthony Perosh
24
Sig strikes landed
22
56
Sig strikes attempted
46
37
Total strikes landed
34
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vinny Magalhaes
"Pezao"
14-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Perosh
"The Hippo"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—