Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
John Lineker
Jose Maria
52%
48%
Why
23
Age
Δ 8y
32
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lineker: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Maria: 19 sig / 1 TD
John Lineker
Jose Maria
48
Sig strikes landed
47
127
Sig strikes attempted
119
64
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
Jose Maria
"No Chance"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32