Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Tom Watson
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leites: 51 sig / 5 TD ·
Watson: 33 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Tom Watson
50
Sig strikes landed
52
106
Sig strikes attempted
101
62
Total strikes landed
75
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Thales Leites
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1
Tom Watson
"Kong"
18-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
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