Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Thiago Santos
47%
53%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ferreira: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 0 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Thiago Santos
35
Sig strikes landed
40
104
Sig strikes attempted
116
45
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30