Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Phil Davis
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
25-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-4
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Machida: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Davis: 21 sig / 2 TD
Lyoto Machida
Phil Davis
26
Sig strikes landed
31
59
Sig strikes attempted
76
37
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
227s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W2
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—