Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Chan Sung Jung
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
33-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-8
W4
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Aldo: 32 sig / 5 TD ·
Jung: 17 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Chan Sung Jung
55
Sig strikes landed
49
143
Sig strikes attempted
133
79
Total strikes landed
63
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W3
Chan Sung Jung
"The Korean Zombie"
18-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—