Prelims2
Lightweight
Aaron Riley vs Justin Salas
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aaron Riley
Justin Salas
80%
20%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 1y
31
30-15-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Riley: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Salas: 54 sig / 3 TD
Aaron Riley
Justin Salas
33
Sig strikes landed
29
75
Sig strikes attempted
67
52
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aaron Riley
30-15-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
12-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—