Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Trevor Smith
71%
29%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
W3
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Herman: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Smith: 87 sig / 1 TD
Ed Herman
Trevor Smith
32
Sig strikes landed
20
69
Sig strikes attempted
54
46
Total strikes landed
31
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33