Prelims1
Lightweight
Yves Edwards vs Daron Cruickshank
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Daron Cruickshank
74%
26%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
42-23-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Edwards: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruickshank: 44 sig / 0 TD
Yves Edwards
Daron Cruickshank
39
Sig strikes landed
42
100
Sig strikes attempted
109
51
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yves Edwards
42-23-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—