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Robbie Lawler vs Bobby Voelker

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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Bobby Voelker
73% 27%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
31-16
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-14
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lawler: 28 sig / 1 TD · Voelker: 10 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Bobby Voelker
52
Sig strikes landed
32
93
Sig strikes attempted
63
62
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
118s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Robbie Lawler

"Ruthless"
31-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
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Blue corner
L1

Bobby Voelker

"Vicious"
19-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
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